How to erase the Islamic State (I): What was the real target of the Brussels attack and what they wants from West.

 The Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, from now Daesh), has quickly become the biggest threat in the minds of the Western world. This is the first post of a series were I will point out how we could fight Daesh. In this first chapter I will focus on the brutal attack in Brussels. Was the airport and the subway its real target? What does whant the Daesh from us?

According to the latest news, all the evidence points that the arrest of Salah Abdeslam, one of the authors of the attacks in Paris, may have precipitated the realization of the attacks in Brussels. The Belgian police found after the arrest multitude of weapons, explosives and materials for making them. All this indicates that the Daesh was using his Belgian sanctuary for preparing another attack when the arrest took place. This arrest pushed the members of the terrorist cell to commit a hasty attack. But why?

There are two main reasons to rush. On the one hand publicity showing that you can react and are able to take revenge. On the other hand if the police were on the trial of the cell was only matter of time before arrest them. Daesh is having low hours because the Syria-Iraq coalition air campaign and needs to demonstrate its strength. The easiest way for do that after the arrest, has been an attack in the vicinity of where the terrorist cell was, Brussels, because travel outside the country at a time of high alert would put them in danger. But, where perform the attack? If they had gone to a nearby small town, it would have been easy for them to cause a very great slaughter before the police arrived (remember Utoya in 2011). But that's not what a terrorist want, their ultimate goal is publicity and fear.

If we see an attack in a distant country it affects us less than if we see it in our country or in a neighboring country. If its happens in a place where we've been, cause more deed impact because we think "I have been there. It could be me" and if it is a place where we usually pass, the terror seizes us. So the transport hubs as crowded subway stations, train stations or airports of major cities are the preferred targets. For these reasons they choose those emergency objectives: Closeness to their location, easy accessibility and psychological impact.

But if this was not their main objective what it was?. For me it is clear. As happened with the attacks in Paris I think their target was some of the preparatory football matches for Euro 2016, were to be play across Europe in the coming days. It was his primary objective in Paris (the Stadium of France during Germany-France football Match), but they failed. How many had been killed in a “Stadium of France” full of people? What would have happened if they were been able to approach the stage where Hollande and Merkel were seated?. I guess their short-term objective is to cancel Euro 2016. That would be an unprecedented media success for Daesh.

But, what Daesh wants from west? What objectives they pursuit? Obviously, despite what some people says, it is not in revenge for the coalition aerial attacks. If you want to get rid of the attacks, the better way is to "keep quiet and not disturb". Western public opinion (which opposes to any military intervention systematically) and the monetary cost of operation will do the rest. An example of this is Boko Haram, probably the bloodiest terrorist group in the world, even more than the Daesh, but this group prefer avoid the direct confrontation with the West, since he knows that Western countries will not spend their money on them, because in the end, the fate of the other countries (like Nigeria) and their people care little.

Daesh flag at St-Romain-au-Mont-D'or, France. Photo: Thierry Ehrmann (Flickr)

If not a defensive method is clearly a publicity campaign. But publicity for what? to raise money?. The money they get from western donations is a pittance compared to middle east donantions gas, oil, art sales tax or sale of slaves income. Moreover, it is more or less clear that the money collected in Europe remains there for Daesh operations in the continent. You could think, thus, that the purpose of this publicity campaign is recruiting young Europeans. But is this so? What kind of people?. Most European jihadists are young misfits who have been radicalized by internet or by contact with Salafist groups.

But they are just “lost young people” looking for a group to host them. Most of them want to leave Deash when they realize that in Syria they can not upload a selfy with an AK, because there is no Internet. These spiritless young people, who have no military training beyond PlayStation, are completely useless for the Islamic state, excluding use them as servants or send them to the front as sitting ducks to avoid exposing their best troops. Those who have traveled or are bright enough can be used as "mules" or couriers, because his European passport allow them to travel more freely. Only in cases of the most fanatical people, after a carefully preparation they can be sent back to Europe to set up cells and perpetrate attacks.

But again, attack to get publicity? What for? I firmly believe that what they want is that which can not be bought with money: skilled people. Of course you could bought skilled people for crime organizations, but go to Syria for fight alongside with Deash for money is not an option for the people if they are not fanatic. Skilled people as the German who makes the propaganda Daesh, engineers to set up the captured arms factories in Syria and Iraq, doctors who heal, economists who move and manage their money, personnel trained in telecommunications, chemist that manufacture conventional (or not) bombs. Things that often is not easy to achieve in the Middle East and in Europe exist in lots “skilled and unmotivated young people, eager to be part of something bigger”.So I think that to combat Daesh, Europe must put the focus on these skilled people who are radicalized, capture or "erase" them because they are irreplaceable for them.